Sino-American Relations

The Thucydides Trap: A paradigm shift from Ping-pong diplomacy to Gunboat diplomacy

China is currently USA’s largest trading partner with $648.5 billion in total trade during 2016, both have become increasingly reliant on one another.

Despite the fact, there are other unfolding facts creating rifts between Sino-American relations. There is another tale besides Ping-pong diplomacy and that is gunboat diplomacy.

The United States has enjoyed unparalleled status in the world and asserted its hegemony every now and then whether its invasion of Iraq, Vietnam war and Libya intervention. It never lags behind in showing its superpower status.

Therefore, the rise of China in world screen is hard to swallow for the USA that is why it is again using dollar diplomacy to thwart China.

Trade War Between Beijing and Washington

"When you’re already $500 Billion DOWN, you can’t lose!”  Donald Trump tweeted on April 4.   Exports were $169.8 billion; imports were $478.8 billion.  The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with China was $385 billion in 2016 Imposing 35% to 45% tariffs on Chinese imports was one of the several resonating slogans during the election campaign to bring China to renegotiate trade terms. According to analysts, if trade war starts between Beijing and Washington then American companies are at risk of losing billions of dollars as they import cheap goods from China which are bought by the American middle class who mostly voted for Trump.

Recently, China offered to buy nearly $70 Billion energy, agricultural and manufactured products from the United States to stave off trade tariffs. 

South China Sea Conflict

Apart from this, it is pertinent to mention the conflict of South China Sea for discussing the relationship between two regional hegemons. As China is world’s largest importer of Raw material and exporter of finished goods so it needs sea for market access. South China sea encompasses China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Philippines, the Malay peninsula and Sumatra up to the Strait of Malacca in the west.   

The area's importance largely results from one-third of the world's ship sailing through its waters and that it is believed to hold huge oil and gas reserves beneath its seabed.

      

That South China Sea is an apple of discord between China and American allies.

The Islands Conflict

Spratley, Paracel and Scarborough Shoal Islands

The Spratly Islands are important for economic and strategic reasons. The Spratly area holds potentially significant, but largely unexplored, reserves of oil and natural gas.

The Spartley islands conflict is a territorial dispute among Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei. These islands are occupied by China but claimed by these five countries.

Paracel and Scarborough Shoal are occupied by China and claimed by Vietnam and Philippines respectively.

In 2015, Satellite imaginary showed China constructing an airfield on Fiery Cross Reef within the Spratly whilst continuing its land reclamation activities at other sites.
Historically, when China was the much larger state, these islands and area inside Nine-dash line were parts of China but the claim is unlawful under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

America will never tolerate another hegemon in the region, therefore, US supports its allies. As USA sells military artillery to these countries (claimants of Islands) which largely accounts for US revenue generation. Presence of American naval vessels near China occupied islands signals American interest in the region.

The recent seizure of US naval ship by Chinese warship in the northwest of Subic Bay has further frayed Sino-American relations. While Pentagon is firm on its stand that Unmanned underwater vessel (UUV) was collecting data inside the South China Sea.

Furthermore, Trump's phone call to Taiwanese President was another blow to China rejecting its long-standing position of 'One China Policy’. Taiwan is most sensitive part of their relationship.

There is another island called Sankaku island in the East China Sea controlled by Japan but China is staking the claim. So, future of the high-yielding region is unpredictable.

Intransigent positions of these states, ceaseless skirmishes and Sabre-rattling by the USA and its allies make the region volatile and risky for trade.

Therefore, China needs to have a safe route for the trade which ultimately compels them to go for Gwadar that is why the ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR) initiative has become the centrepiece of China’s economic diplomacy.

On the other hand, efforts to sabotage CPEC by India is burgeoning, carrying out its and USA’s mutual interests.

In order to maintain world peace both the countries have to resolve their issues through diplomatic means and need to cede their intransigence otherwise war is inexorable.